Global warming leading to a colder Europe? There is no doubt as to the fact we have all heard about global warming and its many disastrous effects, with predicted temperatures rising by about 3-5ºc, raising sea water to flood some areas, whilst bringing drought and deserts to other areas. However in the event of increased global warming, and perhaps the continuation of current warming, we may face a colder Europe. The crux of this argument is based on the North Atlantic drift, known to some as the Gulf Stream. Originating from the Gulf of Mexico this ‘conveyer belt’ of warm water works its way up through the Atlantic, and along the west coast of Europe, generally keeping temperatures a good 8ºc higher than they would be without its warming effect. This helps keep a temperate climate whereas other areas along the same line of latitude (and therefore expected to have roughly the same temperatures) are a lot colder. The North Atlantic Drift is part of a much larger Global heat transference mechanism known as (thermohaline circulation) which helps regulate global temperature along with atmospheric cells, by circulating cold water from the poles deep under the oceans, and in return bringing warmer water from the equator to the poles, and for the North Atlantic drift, past Europe. However this system is effected by a wide range of variables, not all of which are fully understood by scientists today, and in theory even fairly minor imbalances in the systems which keep the thermohaline circulation going could cause the whole thing to weaken, if not shut down completely. One of these factors is the Salinity (how salty the water is) of water around the poles, which is in danger of being disrupted if global warming continues. For the formation of deep water needed to transport cold water to the equator an imbalance in water density is required so denser water can push down and flow along the seabed, continuing the circular flow of water around the globe. If Global warming continues to melt the icecaps there will be a steady increase of freshwater into the arctic and Antarctic seas, which may act to form a salinity cap across the water as this will result in less dense water forming a layer, which would not sink downwards to continue the circulation. This will either have the effect of pushing the Circulation down towards the south Atlantic or shutting it off completely. Either way Europe would then be deprived of the heat that would be brought by the North Atlantic Drift and hence be colder year round. Models predict that overall if Global warming does increase the Northern Hemisphere is likely to cool, whereas the southern Hemisphere will warm as would be expected. However we cannot yet predict how intense these heating and cooling effects will be, how long they will last and what knock on effects they will have. Indeed so complex is the climate system that it is likely we will not have an accurate guess until the time of its occurrence.