San Andreas Fault Mega-thrust Earthquake 2010?
Published by Could 2010 be the year that the mega-thrust earthquake hits the San Andreas fault line?
Following the devastating news about the recent earthquake in Haiti, residents of California must be starting to get a little bit anxious about whether they will be hit by the much feared mega-thrust earthquake, simply known as the Big One.
Over the past 6 years, there have been a series of large earthquakes, all on a similar latitude to that of California.
The first large earthquake being in December 2004, an earthquake measuring 9.1 on the Richter scale, which hit the Maldives.
The next large earthquakes, then hit Sumatra in 2005 and 2007, measuring 8.6 & 8.5 respectively on the Richter scale, then again more recently in September 2009 measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale. There was another earthquake in Samoa, which was also in September 2009 measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale. In November 2009 (to the north of San Andreas fault line), there was a further earthquake in Queen Charlotte Islands, measuring 6.0 on the Richter scale.
Now of course we have had the most recent earthquake in Haiti measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale.
Whilst I am not claiming to be an seismologist or an earthquake expert, (this is purely from my own observations) – whenever there is a large earthquake, anywhere in the world, the force generated through the movement of tectonic plates, must surely must have a knock on effect to other tectonic plates that it borders. The only example I can liken it to, is the Newton’s Cradle effect (as detailed in the below video).
With the closest of the more recent earthquakes, in relation to California, being Haiti, Samoa and Queen Charlotte Islands, my concerns are, could it be sufficient to trigger the “Big One?”
The Queen Charlotte fault line borders the Cascadia sub duction zone, which in turn feeds into the San Andreas fault line. It has been suggested that there is a direct connection to seismic activity within the Cascadia sub duction zone which, has had a knock effect to cause seismic activity within the San Andreas fault line. In a similar effect to that of squeezing a spot, if enough pressure builds from force being applied from either side, at some point the spot will burst. Could this same principal occur to the San Andreas fault line?
The last Cascadia mega thrust earthquake was recorded back in 1700 with an estimated magnitude 9.2 on the Richter scale and it is estimated that such an earthquake is due to occur every 300-500 years.
Could the King James Bible Code be correct and could 2010 be the year of the Big One?
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On January 17, 2010 at 12:02 pm
Thought provoking. Those who claim expertise on this subject continue to suggest the so-called big one will occur….not if, but when.
On January 18, 2010 at 5:57 am
A scary look into the near future, well written and observed good one. LB
On February 2, 2010 at 1:55 am
CA central valley has been rebuilt on top of a secretly-replaced water system. Code violations, clamped sewer and water lines; no permits or inspections; altered records to cover up the evidence. Our chances for surviving an earthquake have been greatly diminished – the public remains oblivious. http://www.myspace.com/marlalk4
On February 26, 2010 at 7:10 pm
Please correct me if mistaken however I believe the last mega-thrust event for the west coast of North America was Anchorage, Alaska, 1964. While some mega-thrust events are highly predictable such as the Nankai Trough in Japan, much greater mega-thrust events are likely from \’sleeper\’ zones; the New Madrid, Missouri quakes of 1811-12 as only one example.
On March 12, 2010 at 5:59 pm
I’ve been watching these quakes since 1992 in so ca. I think by the pattern of quakes it is likely a major quake will soon strike Southern California in the very very near future. I don’t think people are ready, I don’t think people even believe it will happen. I do know when large quakes strike the other side of the ring of fire….we usually get hit on this side. Just look at the past few years and you can see this happening. Also these quakes are going to get bigger as the pressure builds up…yes in so. ca. and yes, in the midwest!!!
On August 20, 2010 at 3:37 pm
I’m worried we are in for a 9 or even larger quake in CA. My senses are buzzing and that could mean disaster if they are right! No I cannot predict anything much less something of this magnitude but then again these feelings are now on high alert inside me. If correct the San Andreas will break all the way past and through LA like a freight train then break the subduction quake of our northern coast. Sunami’s will be created the likes man has yet to observe except for those from super Volcano’s. September from”King James,” is there for a reason is it deciphered correctly; good question? One answer get prepared scientist all agree time is running out!!!
On August 27, 2010 at 12:27 am
For the most part there is no worry about tsunamis with a slip strike boundary like the San Andreas. These big waves come from the dropping down or pushing up of large masses of land, and then add the rebound of the coastal crust that has been pushed up by the pressure but will then flatten.
On October 24, 2010 at 12:06 pm
eek whatz gonna happen?
On February 22, 2011 at 3:47 am
A magnitude 9 or greater is highly unlikely, if not impossible. Currently, the largest EQ on record is a 9.5 or so in Chile, 1960, and represents almost the maximum possible earthquake magnitude, due to geologic properties of the earth’s crust. Furthermore, the probability of the entire San Andreas Fault rupturing is astronomical. Firstly, stress is so large that now thoughts are that the where the SAF curves behind the San Gabriel Mtns, and the kink in the fault so inefficient at taking up strain, it may instead shear straight, and create a miniplate in the region of the Garlock Fault. Secondly, currently, some of the stress is taken up in other regions by aseismic creep, for example in the Hayward and Calaveras Fault regions in the Bay Area. Thirdly, geophysicists have actually taken part in a joint project with the USGS, social scientists, and other professionals to look at the effects of a large earthquake in SoCal. Not only do they not consider a complete rupture of the SAF a plausible and likely occurrence, they’ve analyzed the stress that has built up in the rocks, especially in the region of the Salton Sea, and have figured that if all this were to be released at once, it would result in an EQ of approximate magnitude 7.8. Look up “Preparedness Now” on YouTube.
Also, be careful looking at Cascadia and the SAF. Not only are they two different types of faults (subduction zone/convergent boundary versus a transform boundary) but they are also not directly connected, instead joined by the Mendocino Fracture Zone – a region of offshore seismicity due to another transform fault (horizontal slip like the SAF) that runs perpendicular to the SAF *AND* subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate in the Cascadia region. So just because they may be related doesn’t mean there is a concrete correlation between the two.
Obviously, as much as I wish otherwise, I think it’s pretty apparent that geology is an imprecise science, especially when it comes to EQ (and other geologic occurrence) prediction. So while you can certainly say the SAF in SoCal *WILL* rupture, for rupture it will, no one can say when, or even how – will it rupture in small slips, or one massive catastrophic event?
Food for thought; cheers.