Black Swan – The Theory and The Feathered Friend
Published by The Black Swan has become a byword for a theory explaining why high-impact and unexpected events happen – the Black Swan Event. Why did this come about -and what of the real bird behind the theory?
Australia, 1697. Dutch Explorer Willem de Vlamingh was the first European to – incredulously – catch sight of a black swan. Sailing along the coast of New Holland (which we now know as Australia) he sailed up a river and set a standard example of truth as Europeans saw it on its head. All swans are white – that was taught at school as something both true and well known but here, up the (later named) Swan River de Vlamingh saw something thought to be impossible. The news spread to Europe – to incredulous ears – but the proof of existence of this confounding avian was not verified until 1726 when a pair of the swans were taken to Jakarta and put on display.
Fast forward almost three centuries and enter, stage left, one Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In his book, The Black Swan (2007), Taleb wrote that virtually everything of importance in human history can be put down to a ‘black swan’. That is that none of them were predicted – and neither were they directed. He gives many examples, but some of the most notable are the PC, the attacks of September 11 2001 and the First World War. It could be argued that some of these events were predicted but there is no extant record prior to their happening that adequately explains their consequences.
The bird itself, elegant and beautiful can easily be seen as the antithesis of many of the events to which its name is often attached. One tribe of Australian Aborigines, the Nyungar, believed that their ancestors were black swans who then became men. They celebrated this in a ceremony known as woolberr until the 1920s until the last of that grouping died out. Like the white swans of Europe it is a large water bird and it is found in the southeast and southwest of Australia. Although it was first spotted in the seventeenth century it was not until 1790 that it was placed in to a genus – Chenopis – by the English naturalist John Latham. We will return to the species later – for now we will concentrate on the theory and the event and how the term came to be.
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16 Responses to “Black Swan – The Theory and The Feathered Friend”
On February 24, 2010 at 3:01 pm
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On February 26, 2010 at 3:47 am
“One tribe of Australian Aborigines, the Nyungar, believed that their ancestors were black swans who then became men. They celebrated this in a ceremony known as woolberr until the 1920s until the last of that grouping died out. ”
You might want to fact-check this…
On March 15, 2010 at 10:33 am
The babies are always so much cuter. Although, they are still such fascinating creatures.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:33 am
Have to admit I have never heard of that term, so I guess that is a Black Swan event. A fine article.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:33 am
Another interesting post, RJ. I have just learned of this from you, thanks.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:33 am
great one
On March 15, 2010 at 10:34 am
Good article.
Nice stories and build up.
Thanks for sharing.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:34 am
As I saw a pair of black Swans on my pearl anniversary, and their necks formed a heart shape for us, I consider them lucky for me.
Lovely article.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:34 am
Loved this..Very well done.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:35 am
Interesting.. of course conspiracy theorists will tell you that the Sept 11 attacks were not only predictable but planned by the US government. That Bush already had plans to attack Al Quada.. and more..
anyhow thats a wee bit off topic. This was a good read.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:36 am
excellent share…thought provoked greatly.thanks for sharing.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:38 am
I heard an interview with writer David Icke, where he said that the royal family put Black Swans instead of White at Diana’s memorial, to bind her with an evil prescence because they were symbols of the dark goddess Hecate, or some such thing. Maybe an attempt to cause a Black Swan event?
On March 15, 2010 at 10:38 am
What A Article
On March 15, 2010 at 10:40 am
Didn’t know there’s a black swan…graceful creature.
On March 15, 2010 at 10:44 am
The article is wonderful.
The pictures are awesom.
On April 4, 2010 at 7:56 am
We also have black swans in New Zealand. It’s the reverse for me – I never knew they didn’t exist (outside zoos I suppose) elsewhere in the world until relatively recently. Kind of like how people in Europe are always surprised when I say I grew up near a black (iron) sand beach…
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